Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 86690.457313 91484.280291 96278.707120 101430.227050 106805.484247 112245.422464 118163.615927
2025-11-16 78940.917574 86264.229106 93793.672309 102103.571753 111007.403327 120251.134334 130562.977402
2025-11-23 72897.980297 81893.557476 91345.857675 101998.064010 113647.499048 125979.453643 139999.819654
2025-11-30 69248.264068 79596.633131 90667.444411 103358.608863 117470.169034 132644.473678 150159.789753
2025-12-07 66020.598623 77432.903530 89835.677620 104266.815854 120544.997736 138286.287007 159031.215493
2025-12-14 62719.026510 74934.114275 88401.725274 104284.931670 122434.548451 142455.804962 166138.499678
2025-12-21 60002.807716 72918.337392 87347.150607 104574.613958 124492.569540 146704.899615 173252.727287
2025-12-28 58332.102544 71990.217298 87431.640196 106073.367992 127854.002767 152380.229980 181964.026529
2026-01-04 56610.802786 70897.604660 87233.293669 107161.570265 130676.006399 157395.584389 189901.693180
2026-01-11 54829.556182 69640.011374 86758.592278 107850.731095 132972.316275 161763.564235 197073.023982
2026-01-18 52929.702142 68152.558848 85933.194264 108052.366269 134634.981270 165351.358701 203312.049307
2026-01-25 51220.389682 66822.419706 85229.604267 108338.587213 136348.573240 168966.014956 209568.746141
2026-02-01 49432.449280 65346.714241 84312.213343 108340.792540 137713.737764 172182.268460 215397.287690
2026-02-08 48346.381428 64699.728192 84371.192371 109505.473715 140470.950751 177065.240779 223246.360703
2026-02-15 46745.690780 63346.898370 83507.445836 109488.473652 141751.191681 180150.547378 228929.344026
2026-02-22 45959.523944 62992.324720 83855.499583 110950.237592 144835.256773 185422.548801 237283.759478
2026-03-01 44990.439779 62364.661387 83828.457222 111916.906541 147291.190989 189927.986647 244722.204082
2026-03-08 43640.427627 61198.185528 83078.981953 111936.978292 148539.645605 192937.332172 250327.146612
2026-03-15 42491.628124 60255.792172 82580.407911 112244.145714 150124.939882 196350.801075 256434.437195
2026-03-22 41967.840433 60115.072178 83094.066859 113832.319774 153324.269534 201776.158895 265063.285374
2026-03-29 41284.977712 59737.615072 83280.917885 114985.281710 155965.540833 206512.889742 272859.456485
2026-04-05 40457.211718 59138.539439 83155.649368 115715.388782 158056.278418 210560.818495 279810.874900
2026-04-12 39454.130908 58272.056225 82652.282395 115928.994755 159466.749124 213745.600500 285684.820471